Damn Stats & Lies!
There seems to be a placid acceptance of the ‘economic argument’ for staying in the EU and stats are often trotted out to support this and rarely challenged. We all know it’s very hard to know everything and be sure of your stats just in terms of numbers, let alone being able to juggle them to counter others that are thrown at you. Accordingly they are often effective sucker punches for all politicians but equally toxic to them when used correctly as in the sad case of Diane Abbott.
Let’s be clear, the EU is not a booming economic zone. Only Antarctica are doing worse. When we joined the EEC it was 30% with better access to the rest of the world and their relative success it’s down to more like 17% now and will probably be less than 10% within a decade regardless of Brexit. 44% of our trade is often quoted to hinge on the EU market. Putting aside the amount of business that only passes through the EU on the way to somewhere else this is actually only a proportion of exports rather than the whole economy. More like 44% of a third of the economy rather than the whole of it. Still, not entirely insignificant but you have to remember we are paying a lot to be a member of this exclusive, protectionist club but is it paying off very well? The UK economy is as big as the smallest 20 in the EU combined. Also the six biggest exporters into the EU are not actually members of the EU, their trade might suffer by the imposition on tariffs but it obviously isn’t an insurmountable issue.
Around 90% of the world are not in the EU either. The EU has managed to reach trade deals with them so we can deal with them as well possibly as we might be able to outside of the EU but those not falling into that category we have no choice but to pay more for. A hard Brexit might make German cars 10% more expensive but Japanese ones will benefit from an equal reduction. There’s no doubt there’s an issue of scale. In terms of immigration the EU attracts about a third as many UK nationals as the UK manages to attract to move from the EU. There’s a similar ratio on jobs - 1.5 million in the UK rely on the EU but 5 million in the EU rely on the UK. We run a huge budget deficit to earn the nickname of ‘Treasure Island’ and are the biggest market for many sectors like German cars. It’s true the EU is bigger despite the size and importance of the UK but still it is very significant for their economy however they try to play down our importance. They are important to us, but we are very important to them also.
The other aspect that is often overlooked is that the whole of the UK economy is required to adhere to EU law but only around 10% trade with the EU and actually gain a benefit by doing so. The rest have to stick to the rules for no reason at all aside from sticking to the rules to give the 10% access. The removal of this red tape will only help business flourish when they are freed from this unnecessary admin. All this in a hope it redresses the balance a little bit. Naturally trade is good for everyone, but the EU desperately needs to find a way to work with it’s biggest and closest customer after Brexit.
Let’s be clear, the EU is not a booming economic zone. Only Antarctica are doing worse. When we joined the EEC it was 30% with better access to the rest of the world and their relative success it’s down to more like 17% now and will probably be less than 10% within a decade regardless of Brexit. 44% of our trade is often quoted to hinge on the EU market. Putting aside the amount of business that only passes through the EU on the way to somewhere else this is actually only a proportion of exports rather than the whole economy. More like 44% of a third of the economy rather than the whole of it. Still, not entirely insignificant but you have to remember we are paying a lot to be a member of this exclusive, protectionist club but is it paying off very well? The UK economy is as big as the smallest 20 in the EU combined. Also the six biggest exporters into the EU are not actually members of the EU, their trade might suffer by the imposition on tariffs but it obviously isn’t an insurmountable issue.
Around 90% of the world are not in the EU either. The EU has managed to reach trade deals with them so we can deal with them as well possibly as we might be able to outside of the EU but those not falling into that category we have no choice but to pay more for. A hard Brexit might make German cars 10% more expensive but Japanese ones will benefit from an equal reduction. There’s no doubt there’s an issue of scale. In terms of immigration the EU attracts about a third as many UK nationals as the UK manages to attract to move from the EU. There’s a similar ratio on jobs - 1.5 million in the UK rely on the EU but 5 million in the EU rely on the UK. We run a huge budget deficit to earn the nickname of ‘Treasure Island’ and are the biggest market for many sectors like German cars. It’s true the EU is bigger despite the size and importance of the UK but still it is very significant for their economy however they try to play down our importance. They are important to us, but we are very important to them also.
The other aspect that is often overlooked is that the whole of the UK economy is required to adhere to EU law but only around 10% trade with the EU and actually gain a benefit by doing so. The rest have to stick to the rules for no reason at all aside from sticking to the rules to give the 10% access. The removal of this red tape will only help business flourish when they are freed from this unnecessary admin. All this in a hope it redresses the balance a little bit. Naturally trade is good for everyone, but the EU desperately needs to find a way to work with it’s biggest and closest customer after Brexit.